Fibonacci Sequence Nothing Mystic – Use It In Forex Trading!
Leonardo of Pisa, better known to us today as Fibonacci first introduced what we call the Fibonacci sequence to the west in his 1202 book Liber Abaci (the sequence was already known in Indian mathematics). He stumbled upon this sequence while attempting to estimate how many rabbits he would be able to breed in one year based on his knowledge of their breeding habits. This mathematical model is used by Forex traders today.
So you see, what many people mistakenly take as a mere mathematical abstraction, just “fooling around” with numbers, is rooted in very real-world applied mathematics. To state things very basically, the Fibonacci sequence can be used to detect and describe otherwise hidden patterns in the world around us.
How can this be applied to investing? Very astute investors understand that there are hidden patterns in the stock market–based on the mass of investors’ behavior. “Buy low and sell high” and “The best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets” are but two investment aphorisms that not only work, but also come from understanding hidden patterns of the investment markets.
The reason that investment market patterns are so well hidden is because “up close” they cannot be seen. Day to day, hour to hour fluctuations in the investment markets cannot be predicted with any accuracy. But certain overall trends that extend over longer periods of time definitely can be. And savvy investors, including Forex traders, have successfully been using Fibonacci’s number sequence to take advantage and make big profits.
The Fibonacci sequence is a string of numbers with each number being the sum of the two numbers which preceded it. For example, one such string would be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21 and so on. These numbers are related in several ways. Any given number in a Fibonacci sequence is about 1.618 of its predecessor – the “golden ratio” of the Greek mathematicians.
Of all the Fibonacci series the two applications in wide spread use by Forex traders and investors are arcs and retracements.
Fibonacci charts are created through a technique comprising three curved lines that are drawn for the purpose of anticipating key resistance and support levels as well as areas of ranging. First, an invisible trendline is drawn between two points (typically these are the high and low for a given time period). Then, three curves are drawn so as to intersect this trendline at the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Transaction decisions are made at the point where the price of the asset crosses through these key levels.
Next is the retracement – this is when the movement of a stock or other traded commodity reverses direction; this is a reversal which is stronger than the prevailing trend of the stock’s movement. Retracement patterns are looked at closely by investors; a Fibonacci retracement can be used to analyze the odds of a commodity’s price having a larger than average retracement before continuing back on the direction it had before reversal. The trendline is typically drawn between two extremes and is divided vertically by the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
The Fibonacci retracement is widely used by sophisticated traders to find: strategic places for transactions to be placed; target prices; and stop-losses. Other technical tools including Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, and Elliott Wave theory all make use of retracement.
The reason that the Fibonacci sequence is used in investing is simple: it works! Forex traders in particular in particular seem to find it useful in making profitable trades.
